Thank you for coming. I'm John Short Sherry I'm an associate professor of public policy and director of the wiser diplomacy center and International Policy Center here at the ford school I'm delighted to welcome you this afternoon to our annual Vandenberg lecture which this year features Ambassador William Burns statesman president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of the just released book that many of you have in your hands the back channel in conversation with my colleague Michael Barr the Joan and Sanford while Dean here at the ford school I'll say more about Ambassador Burns in just a moment but let me 1st tell you a bit about why this distinguished lecture series is named for the great Arthur Vandenberg who served in the state of Michigan in the U.S. Senate from 1928 to 1951 born and raised in Grand Rapids Senator Vandenberg led the Republican Party pro position of staunch isolationism prior to US involvement in the 2nd World War 2 a broad embrace of internationalism as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee he worked to forge bipartisan support for our country's most significant and enduring international policies including the creation of the Truman Doctrine the Marshall Plan NATO and the creation of the United Nations the Vandenberg fund was a stablished here by the generosity of the Myer family foundation the Vandenberg fund enables the Ford school to host an annual high profile public event on a wide variety of topics related international relations U.S. foreign policy diplomacy trade and more this lecture series is a vital intellectual tribute to Senator Arthur Vandenberg we are honored that Hank Meyer is here with us this afternoon and I hope you'll join me in thanking Hank and the mayor family for their generous support for this lecture series. I'd also like to acknowledge 3 additional special guest with us this afternoon in the audience all with careers that overlapped with our distinguished speakers service 1st we are honored to be joined by U. of M. Regent Ron wiser who Sirmed served as U.S. ambassador to Slovakia and whose philanthropy and leadership have strengthened the university in so many ways very much including right here at the ford school welcome region wiser I am the Ford school zone professor of international practice ambassador Melvin LIBICKI helped make today's event possible Thanks Mel I And finally we have a special guest on campus Michigan alumna Jill Doherty a former C.N.N. correspondent Miss Dorothy was the C.N.N. Moscow bureau chief Well Bill Burns served as ambassador to Russia and so we're glad that they can reunite here at the ford school this afternoon. You'll also see flyers outside for an address that Jill is giving tomorrow here on the U.N. campus and now to the star of our show you will find Ambassador Burns is distinguished biography in the program as you'll see he's a luminary of American diplomacy one of the most impactful diplomats of his era I'll just mention a few highlights he served as deputy assistant secretary of state deputy secretary of state from 2011 to Political Affairs from 20082011 ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 8 Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs from 2001 to Jordan executive secretary and a whole host of other important roles basically a time timeline of his career is a map that illuminates many of the most important issues in U.S. foreign policy in recent decades from the Arab Israeli dispute to U.S. Russia relations to the Iran nuclear deal now head of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Besser Burns embodies the values behind the Vandenberg lecture as well as those we hope to impart to Ford and U M students at our new wiser diplomacy center now just a word on format we'll have some time toward the end after Dean Barr and Ambassador Burns have a conversation to take some questions from the audience to Ford school students Tonya Molo and Ashton Smith and I will sift through your question cards and pose them to the panel for those watching online please feel free to tweet your questions using the hash tag policy talks again welcome to Ambassador Burns and now let me hand things over to Dean Barr and Ambassador Burns. Thank you very much John thank you investor Byrne's for being here thanks to all of you for coming in to very much let me add my thanks to johns to our special guests for being here it's really a wonderful to have you and I'm really excited to be here to tell you about this book the back channel by Ambassador Burns which is really just a lovely book beautifully written is a hard thing to write. An honest story about a complicated set of topics and really is will say. Talk about a little bit down the road and to be nuanced about one's own own decisions and to have reflection about one's own choices to super challenging thing to do what I thought we might do investors start by helping us understand what diplomacy is it's kind of one of those words that for many people is allusive so maybe you could start by saying what you think. Most people think diplomacy is that but they're wrong about and then maybe what it really is yeah well thanks Michael it's really nice to be with all of you today a pleasure to be an Ann Arbor I mean maybe I'll start by saying you know it but it's most basic definition diplomacy is what we use as Americans in this case to promote our interests and values abroad to try to persuade other governments to act in ways which are consistent with ours or to try to deter them for acting in ways that are going to run across what we see to be our interests and values you know I think it's actually more important than ever today simply because we're no longer the only big kid on the geo political block today with the rise of China the resurgence of Russia and do with the emergence of all sorts of global challenges from climate change the one truly existential threat that we face today to the revolution in technology and the ways in which that's going to change not just the way governments interact but the way societies function that I think is going to underscore the significance of diplomacy now just as you suggested diplomacy I think maybe one of the oldest of human professions but it's also one of the most misunderstood it really does oftentimes operate in back to animals kind of out of sight and out of mind and so you know what I try to do in this book is bring it to life I think for a wider readership outside people you know like me card carrying members of the Washington establishment and to do that through narrative because I was very lucky to play a modest role in you know much of post Cold War American foreign policy from the highs of the end of the Cold War when I worked for President George H.W. Bush and Secretary of State James Baker through the lows of the Iraq war in 2003. To this secret talks with the Iranians on the nuclear issue in 2013 the turbulence of the Arab Spring the reemergence a great power rivalry. But around the wary you know I tried to address some of the misunderstandings and misperceptions about diplomacy to me one of them is the one of the most straightforward diplomacy is a very small profession and the United States is only about $8000.00 American diplomats in Washington and around the world former secretary of defense Bob Gates used to point out that there are more members of American military bands than there are diplomats. From advanced military music but you know there's an imbalance there the most recent budget put forward by the Trump White House a week ago proposes 40000000000 dollars for the State Department as well as all of our foreign assistance overseas and $750000000000.00 for defense so that's one I think misunderstanding a 2nd really has to do with our role. In other words the notion that diplomacy is just about talking nicely to people who are indulging foreign leadership something that I think the president self sometimes is guilty of but the truth is that diplomacy is hard work and it's about persistence I mean I learned that very early on in my career working for Secretary of State Baker you know it looks in hindsight as if many of the achievements of that era at the end of the Cold War were kind of for a day and didn't look that way at the time you know for Germany to be reunified remain a member of NATO within a year after the fall of the Berlin Wall was not a small achievement and that had a lot to do not just with the moment of you know unrivaled American influence but also the people in. And in Baker and Brant Scowcroft the national security adviser and their skill and judgment in that period to broker was also a very persistent diplomat which is an underappreciated quality outside his He's 88. Outside the office his office in Houston there's a wall that's covered with cartoons most of which poked fun at his effort after does or storm after Saddam Hussein was expelled from Kuwait. To organize the Madrid Middle East peace conference began something that seems neat in retrospect and in that the time he made 9 trips to the Middle East and these cartoons basically portray him as Don Quixote throughout this area at the windmill of you know of Middle East peace and he you know I remember a number of the episodes in that period one which I'll never forget a meeting that he had with half of the last then the bloody dictator of Syria the father of the current bloody dictator of Syria which went on for 9 consecutive hours now I said had a kind of a surgically improved bladder because him with. Drink cup after cup of Arabic to you which is the custom and not budge an inch so Bowker was absolutely determined he was going to demonstrate his stamina and didn't budge our ambassador at the time and Damascus cracked about 4 hours into the meeting. Rushed out with an Advent to the region excuse that he had to make a phone call the leverage of business. And bunker was also you know it was this was about hope no it was diplomacy because it demonstrates that it wasn't just talking nicely he I remember virtually the number of Texas expressions that he would use with Arab leaders he was meeting one of them was don't let me leave a dead cat on your doorstep which was a challenge for the Arabic language interpreter in the state is that bro you. Don't want to be the person I blame for this conference not happening and even if the difficulties in interpretation were real people eventually understood what he meant and nobody wanted to cross Jim Baker at the time too and then the last thing I'd So that is I think a misperception has to do with risk you know the truth is in the last several decades more American ambassadors have been killed overseas than military generals and when I. In the Middle East bureau in the State Department for Colin Powell 20 percent of our embassies and consulates in the bureau couldn't be accompanied by families because of the nature of the risk probably the hardest single moment I had as a diplomat when I was deputy secretary of state was coming back on a plane from Libya with the remains of Chris Stevens and our other 3 colleagues who were killed there so a lot of times people have those image that diplomacy is about you know cocktail parties and wearing a pinstriped suit very I'm living up to the to the caricature now but you know a lot of people a lot of diplomats as we speak today are doing hard work and hard places around the world so I think there are a lot of misperceptions and one of the things I try to do here is you know been don't know what it's like to be an American diplomat overseas today it's great when one of the themes about this role of the diplomat that comes through again and again in the book is this. Tension between the long game and the short game and you describe lots of situations in the book where short term strategy doesn't seem to be well on with The Long Game or The Long Game is a really great idea but there's no where to get no where to get there from where you are right now can you talk a little bit about you know how you think about. The persistence of the diplomat over this area a long period of time often required to see what an extra all observers are my think of as success. You know it's a really good question I mean the former British prime minister named Harold Macmillan was once asked as half a century ago you know what's the biggest factor in statesmanship and he said allegedly events dear boy. And I think quite a month from that is a question I'm never going to get very far in effective diplomacy or effective foreign policy if you don't have a version if you don't have a strategy if you don't have a through of the case about what's animating the international landscape what your own strengths are connecting and to means you need to have that vision and the best presidents and the best secretaries of state you know I've seen and worked for had that but inevitably however compelling your long game is it's the short game as you suggested that's going to present challenges that oftentimes shape the legacy of presidents and secretaries of state you know you think of the piece of events in the Bush 41 administration you know well beyond our imagination to anticipate them one day the Berlin wall was falling and then Saddam Hussein was invading Kuwait and you know there was a through the case certainly in the administration but there was also you know a kind of sophistication in the way in which they handled personalities and fast moving events I mean one of the things that was most striking about George H.W. Bush and Baker and Scowcroft is you didn't see them spiking the football top of the Berlin Wall you know the notion that's common in Washington now about restoring swagger to the State Department and American diplomacy which is not a concept I ever associated with being a diplomat was that it ran counter to their instincts which were much more how do you exercise in herd knows where but oftentimes in a quiet way the American influence in American power and in the last part of your. Really good question and you know problems that you have to manage as opposed to solving and you know that is far more often than not the challenge for American diplomats it's very rare that you get those triumphal breakthrough moments the reunification of Germany the collapse of the Soviet Union more often than not what you're trying to do is reduce the wrists involved in a particular crisis or a particular challenge we're trying to improve on the margins problem so that your successors are in a better position to actually solve it I mean that was in many ways the thinking behind the Iranian nuclear agreement in the last administration it's not because any certainly not President Obama had any illusions the turning a nuclear agreement with Iran with this particular theocratic regime was going to transform Iran's behavior or transform the U.S. Iranian relationship overnight it was a way to remove one layer of risk in a region which had more than its share of this and that was the risk of a unconstrained Iranian nuclear program so that's the sort of more common future of good diplomacy is trying to manage problems as effectively as you can that's great one of the I mentioned at the outset one of the things the book. Does really well is describe how hard it is to make tough choices along the way and you had a lot of. Instances recorded in the book that I think captured where you were unsure of the choices you made or later thought that they were wrong or where she would frame things differently I wonder whether you might share with folks here an example or to. Of the difficult choices and where you think. Either in retrospect do you think about the problem differently or you wished you had done something differently here I mean we don't have enough time to go through the litany of mistakes. But I mean you know as a former governor person I completely empathize with that no problem of too many failures and the talk about a number of those were my own exactly but I mean I think the challenge oftentimes is and reading something like this is your temptation is to write what you wish you had what you wish you had recommended So one thing that I tried to do was I got about 120 documents you know throughout the course of my career including a number from the Obama administration declassified so that my effort at least was to ground this and what I really thought and said And inevitably when you read back through that it's pretty humbling I mean you know as I try to discuss in the book the most difficult period in some ways you know in my own career was when I ran the Middle East bureau for Colin Powell from 2000 Wonder 2005 and a lot of that was consumed by the run up to the Iraq war in 2003 and now I've never seen in that 1st George W. Bush administration more infighting in Washington over that set of issues than in any of the other administrations I worked a lot of that in the 2nd Bush 43 term. Was rectified in a funny way I think there was actually more continuity from the 2nd term to the 1st A bomb a term like there was between the 2 Bush 43 terms but you know 911 was a huge shock to all of us to the American system and I think you know from the president on down there was a sense that we needed to act decisively to prevent any such attack from ever happening again and I think the debate was over you know how best to take advantage of the great outpouring of support and simple. The There came from around the world after the terrible attacks on $911.00 and the drumbeat began to build pretty early on after the Taliban government was of overthrown in Afghanistan to take on Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq and nobody needed to convince me or people of my generation of middle east pressure this in the State Department that Saddam Hussein deserved every bit of condemnation that he could get I just thought and most of my colleagues believed that it was possible to contain that challenge and it didn't warrant you know use of force and part of the concern was less over the military challenge of overthrowing Saddam and it was about the day after. Because given all the sectarian differences and grievances and anger that that you know rigidly autocratic and repressive regime was sitting on when she took the lid off. You know you could imagine some of the 2nd and 3rd order consequences of what would happen now we you know I my greatest professional regret as I say in the book is not acting more effectively to underscore those concerns you know we tried to colleagues of mine and I wonderful American diplomats named Ryan Crocker who later went on to a number of ambassadorships and David Pierce had the most depressing brainstorming session of our career trying to figure out for Powells benefit although we didn't really need to be convinced of this or other things that could go wrong the day after the day after Saddam Hussein was overthrown and we in terms of the memo the perfect storm now we've got about half of the things right and half wrong we certainly had no monopoly on wisdom it was murky on a hurried list of horribles in a coherent memo all it had birch really no effect on the course of decision making. But it was there were for it to puncture what we thought was the unsustainably rosy assumptions of others especially in the in the Pentagon and in the vice president's office at the time and as I said we had no impact discernible impact on policy. You know to this day I wonder you know it's one of those cases where you know you faced a choice about whether you want to quit and I still think unsatisfying my answer at the time there's a discipline to the foreign service just like there is for the U.S. military you know you can't conduct the U.S. military if every you know battalion commander is saying when he gets an order of well you know I don't actually gets a good idea to go left we should go right. But but it becomes very difficult sometimes when you're faced with choices like that and but it was a minimum what the discipline as a professional diplomat requires is that that you be honest about concerns that you have within the system you don't get to run out to the New York Times you know unless you want to quit and that's what we tried to do however imperfectly at the time and you know removing that just makes clear the imperfections in our ability to see that. The let me let me. Take us a little bit out of the. Operational side and bring up a level for a moment to think about the framework you're operating in and. At the beginning of your book you talk about Headley bull who is your mentor at Oxford and had passed away by the time I got to Oxford a decade later but was a very big force there and I know it's a decade later a big force in John's training at Oxford as well and burnt talks about in his book the Arkle society about the way in which the state system is sort of constantly in tension with either a revolutionary order or on the one hand or or a state of war on the other Those things may be need in the middle. And Bernard talks about the way in which our cultural shared cultural norms and values about the importance of institutions keep that system operating helm How much did you think about those things in the in the course of your you know daily work how much today inform what you thought you were trying to do and maybe maybe did to make it even harder and do those norms still exist. Well good questions are Hedley Bo was a wonderful Australian academic who had a very kind of bemused view of you know I was then a 21 year old American who you know didn't know a lot about the world but I was earlier struck just as you were suggesting by his sense of the importance of history that you had to have a sense of history if you wanted to understand how the world was working today and it had to inform the choices that you've made and it was very much a kind of realist view informed by history of the way in which nations and governments in Iraq did that they were bound to compete with one another there was a bound to be a certain amount of chaos or anarchy in the international system but that there were a kind of herd knows cold blooded interest in certain rules to regulate competition and I think you know that continues to shape my view of how the international system ought to work you need to have you know leaders in that system who can help make progress toward not just establishing those rules but also reinforcing and adapting them and reshaping and what I've always been a little bit leery of the term indispensable nation in referring to the United States and so I think there's you know sometimes an implication that problems can get no problem can get solved with us which I don't believe is the case I do think that there's a sense in which the United States today has no better hand to play than any of its rivals if we play it wisely and does and the disciplined American leadership in the world has a role I think on the current disordered international landscape to you know address your letter the last part of your question I think that sense of a common set of rules and the value of it for everybody no matter how intense or competition is really beginning to fray in particular as other states both are. Allies and our rivals. See a much more erratic and uncertain American approach to the world see you know it administration or at least a White House that seems to act as if it feels that the order that we created over 70 years is holding us hostage there we're kind of Gerber you know held down by the Lilliputians and you know we can better advance our interests in the world through a sort of muscular unilateralism so that tends to erode I think that sense of common purpose and the international stage and then domestically equally importantly I think we're in a really difficult stage that was not invented by President Trump I believe he's accelerated it and made it worse but there's a there's a big disconnect in my view as I was trying to suggest before between lots of American citizens and you know administrations of both parties in Washington you know as you and I have both experienced I don't think most Americans need to be persuaded of the importance of disciplined American leadership in the world you know people understand that are out there if you want to succeed in a very competitive global economy you've got to be able to operate effectively overseas people understand that you know climate and climate change is going to affect our environment and our livelihood and that depends on us working with others people understand that the revolution and technology is changing so much of that landscape there don't there do need to be some basic rules of the road for how you deal with so I think most people understand the importance of discipline leadership they're just skeptical of our capacity for discipline and that's you know that's where you know whether it's the cement astray sion or its successor is going to have to pay more attention to you if you're going to build any support in this country for the sorts of rules and those sorts of engagement on the international landscape which really does matter more than ever I think. We've been talking at a pretty high level I want to now. Talk maybe more in the weeds of Washington for a little bit. Being successful that you're required obviously lots of outward facing diplomacy interacting with other countries and other cultures and leaders but it also requires being really good at understanding how Washington works and the bureaucratic infighting and had to play the game inside the building and had to deal with other agencies so I wonder if you could talk a little bit about what you learned from that experience about had to be effective in those. In the sort of inside game here I mean you know bureaucratic politics in Washington is you know very well as a contact sport you know it's it can be very difficult you know advance a point of view advance your institution's point of view you know the State Department as an institution has not always been renowned for its bureaucratic ability in Washington individual diplomats can be very innovative and very entrepreneurial but as an institution the State Department is rarely accused of being too agile or too. And so you know so part of that is just kind of how we act I think in in bureaucratic politics in Washington you know I've seen different administrations with different strengths and weaknesses it was the intersection of transformational events on the international landscape and a group of people that I think were particularly experienced and worked particularly well together in the George H.W. Bush administration which is how I started the book that made for an effective policy process Brant Scowcroft was the National Security Advisor and to most day I think he's the sort of gold standard of modern national security process. Sees a process that you know we're wrapped around the axle that was culpable of helping the president make decisions but it was OUR so disciplined in the sense that had tried to look around the corner at 2nd and were times when the process broke down I mean I think that was true in the run up to the Iraq war as I described before where 2 RAF and differences pretty profound differences in view were papered over rather than addressed I think you know there were other instances as you know from service in the Clinton administration in the ninety's where there was a demonstration terms of the interagency process to try to integrate in the post Cold War era international economic issues and economic security issues more intimately into the policy process which was over a do I think. In the Obama administration for all the criticism that President Obama got Sometimes I think unfairly for an overly deliberate inner agency process you know having seen the alternatives I'd prefer overly deliberate to more impulsive sometimes but to be fair there were times when you know you do the 97th interagency meeting of deputies of people like me the number twos in agencies and I spent far more time in those meetings in the room that has no windows in the way that's not a situation that is there with my own family and those years and there were times when you'd have the 97th meeting on a really difficult subject like Syria and the natural temptation was to has the intelligence community for yet another assessment of what Bashar us or the Russians or the Iranians might do just as a way of kicking the can down the road my concern in the current era in this administration is that I don't really see any process you know it's policy gets driven from tweet tweet and I say that because you know when. All been fortunate in a way now almost 2 and a half years into an administration where there hasn't been a prolonged international crisis in the ministration I've been a part of or have watched over the years you almost inevitably end up with you like it or not with one of those kind of crises those are the moments when you need a process that's disciplined where you need people who are accustomed to that we need people in senior positions and you look at the number of vacancies in my old institution the State Department or the Pentagon or other places right now and it does give you cause to worry about how you deal with a prolonged international crisis and that's where process does matter who you talk in the book in various spots about some of the weaknesses of the structure of the State Department and it's higher key it's lethargy or there are strategies and I should say I mean you know having spent only one year at the State Department then moved over to Treasury I saw big difference between the the process issues it stayed 1st as treasurer there are things that. You think the State Department could do to make it a more effective player in the in the in the arena sure here I mean you know we've tended again this is just on a self criticism to get in our own way sometimes bureaucratically you know we've added layer it's kind of like repainting your bedroom 17 times you know kind of layer on layer of bureaucracy sometimes which tends to reduce people's sense of initiative you know if you're the Morocco desk officer and you get asked to offer a judgment on some issue if you're going to have your language you're correcting your thinking your sense of ownership of that is going to be diminished remember one time when I was Deputy Secretary of State I got a memo it was like one of my last months on the job there was about a half a page long and a very mundane issue a touch that half a page was a page and a half of what are called clearances so every imaginable office and many that were unimaginable to me had offered their views on this and the result was a kind of how margin I's you know view and homogenous language which didn't do us you know any fervor is when we were trying to again in the context Borat of bureaucratic politics of Washington advancer point of view I've seen other times when you know particular secretaries of state or senior people there were quite effective too but I think there are lots of things we could do was talk about diplomats as gardeners you know as people who try to constantly look at the jungle that's growing on the international landscape and prune and you know cut back a curtain we sometimes don't do such a good job guarding our own patch of turf and that we could do better and. I want to switch gears now and pick maybe just a handful of particular problem areas to focus in on and then. We'll see see how many we can get through there 2 men too many. Bugs in the world today but we'll start with Russia because that's been such an important part of your career among others and also huge set of issues facing the United States' relationship today. Maybe you could start with a level setting for the audience of where you think the relationship is now and what issues you're worried about and then to the extent that you can help us chart a path that's maybe 10 years out. That might look different from today I'd love to hear your thoughts all the easy question yeah. Well I guess I'd say I mean I think we have to be realistic about where the U.S. Russia relationship is today and about at least in the near term over the next few years in dealing with Vladimir Putin's Russia what's possible in words I mean I think we're going to be operating in terms of American policy toward Russia within a relatively narrow band from the sharply competitive to the nastily adversarial post Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections and I think that's just the reality I think you know Putin is going to continue to be an incredibly difficult personality to deal with I'll never forget the 1st meeting I had with Putin when I was the newly arrived U.S. ambassador this is in the summer of 2005 and you in your 1st meeting you present your credentials so it's your letter from the American president to to him and to the president of Russia and this takes place this meeting takes place in the Kremlin which as Jill does very well is you know a place that's Burton a scale to intimidate there's a hers as well as New Ambassadors So you go through these you Charles these very long corridors you go to the end of one hall facing 2 story bronze doors and you're kept waiting there for a minute just to let this all sink in and then the door opens a crack and outcomes President Putin who's not disposed to his bare chested persona you know he's only about 56 and he wears lifts in his shoes so he's not that big a thinker but he carries himself with incredible self-assurance and so I'm there the you know the new American ambassador with my letter before I could handle the letter before I could get a word President Putin signers forward and says You Americans need to listen more you can't have everything your own way anymore we can have affective relations but not just on your terms. That was a thing to judge the D.M. or. Not settle big chip on his shoulder a sense of a combustible combination of grievance and ambition and insecurity and defiantly trying was. Not the one thing I would serve those having served the 1st time I served in Russia was at our embassy in Moscow I was the chief political officer in the early 1990 S. this was Boris Yeltsin's Russia and I played some of the following because I think I've also released that in order to understand the smouldering aggressiveness that's for the mayor Putin's Russia you had to understand that kind of curious mix of hope and humiliation and the disorder of Boris Yeltsin's Russia I remember traveling again as the chief political officer in the winter of the middle of the 1st Chechen war between Russians and Chechen separatists and I'd never seen anything quite like it I mean here was Grozny the capital of Chechnya. Which had been leveled in large part by Russian bombardment about 40 square blocks in the center of Grozny because the Russians you know in the best Russian military tradition of anything worth doing is worth overdoing had as one Russian general put it at the time made the rubble bounce now the very sad reality is that many if not most of the civilians killed and grows in that bombardment were ethnic elderly ethnic Russians who couldn't leave because they couldn't get out of you know there was no escape for them too and. The Russian military you know the former Red Army that you serve on the road in to grows day the 40 miles or so from English area the neighboring Russian Republic looked more like a street gang I mean the nuclear armed street and then the Red Army which. In the Cold War was supposed to be able to get to the English Channel in $48.00 hours and so Clipper like Putin and especially people in the Russian security services in that time were acutely aware of how 4 Russia had fallen and they took advantage in a sense of that sense of humiliation and grievance. You know when when Putin you know some years later somewhat you know people surprise became president of Russia. So looking ahead you know there's a I guess they're very short here and way of putting it at least in my view would be I think it's a mistake for the United States who are allies to to give in to Putin's aggressiveness I mean I think his interference in our elections in 2016 which succeeded beyond his wildest imagination I think he was as surprised as President Trump on election night I think he said he would so dysfunction in the American system and take advantage of our polarization but he didn't I don't believe he thought it was going to have contributed to the impact that it had but you know whether it's there whether it's in Ukraine or you know other parts of the former Soviet Union you know I think we need to be quite firm but I will give in to Putin as we look at this pretty pessimistic near term picture we're not in my view give up over the longer term on the Russia that lies beyond Putin I don't mean to suggest that this is all just about Putin there are lots of people in the Russian political elite who harbor much of the same sense of grievance and insecurity and ambition he just purchased and particularly pug nation form but I do think there's a there's a middle class in Russia that is becoming restive to the social contract with Putin through most of his now almost 2 decades as the leader of Russia has been to Russian citizens you stay out of politics that's my business what I will ensure and rich. Turner rising standards of living and rising growth rate isn't been able to do that in recent years because he missed a moment when he was surfing on a $130.00 a barrel when I was a bastard or innovate and any thought was a deliberate choice because that in his view would have come at the expense of political control which is what matters most to him and to the people around him but I do think that that middle class there is a a deeper urge for better connections to Europe and to the west I think people sense that you know that's where you know one of the biggest key is to their economic future lies and I also think the Russians are going to chafe at being China's junior partner just as they chafed at being the junior partner of the United States right after the Cold War 2 So there is space for old full American diplomacy issue look ahead and that's something that we also need to recognize as well so so for going and so on and Russia. Not not a small problem no let me take another easy one let's go to Iran. You started your career at the same time as the Iranian revolution. One of the combinations the end of your career was the Iran nuclear agreement and I wonder if you could talk a little bit about how you thought about the Iran nuclear agreement what do you think it was helping to achieve and then given that the new administration is pulling out what does that mean for the future of U.S. around in relations another nice easy problem took I took the written examination for the foreign service which in those years was given once a year at the Earth US Embassy and Grosvenor Square in London the same week that the Iranian government seized our embassy hostages and turf now I should a person would have seen that it wondered about their choice of profession and taking the exam for the foreign service but actually it is going to deepen my interest in the world and Iran kind of hung over my career in a way like it did for my generation of American diplomats there were the turbo bombings in Beirut in the early 1980 S. by Iranian supported groups at our embassy and then at the Marine barracks a little bit later. You know the Iran Iraq war throughout the course of the 1980s. And so you know better time I got to more senior positions the number 3 position under secretary of state. In kindy races last year as secretary of state you know I had long believed that we needed to try to test the possibility of direct diplomacy with the Iranian regime not because they had any illusions about the regime I understood the way in which their actions then and still do today threaten our interests the interests of our many of our friends and partners in the Middle East. But I just said bye bye you know not engaging them directly we were actually letting them hide behind the argument nuclear issue and other issues that the problem was the Americans because they wouldn't engage directly with us and I've always sort of diplomacy that it's both a test the kind of direct engagement of whether or not an adversary is prepared to engage seriously but it's also an investment in demonstrating to others that you've gone the extra mile and that the only alternative is to try to step up economic and political pressure to try to produce a serious negotiation and so that was the logic behind you know what I discussed with Secretary Rice at the time and there is one memo that's now on the Carnegie website that I wrote to her in May of 2008 and then another that I wrote to Hillary Clinton in January 2009 it's virtually identical Zometa churns the professional diplomats try to be consistent at least in the views that they offer but it was basically making exactly that argument about engaging with one when we didn't do it directly with the Iranians we joined our international partners in the nuclear talks you know they proved incapable in the early period of a serious negotiation and we use that to increase economic and political pressure you know the U.N. Security Council sanctions and other forms of sanctions which by the beginning of President Obama's 2nd term early $2013.00 have reduced Iranian oil exports by 50 percent reduced the value of their currency by 50 percent so their minds were focused so it was no coincidence that you know early in 2013 President Obama decided to make another run and direct diplomacy. And so we began the secret talks in Oman. Which is the out of the way enough place where you actually in this day and age can still go out to sea for secret talks. Did about 9 or 10 rounds over the course of 2013 to this day it surprises me that we kept quiet it's not an easy thing to do it was not an easy choice for the president to do it quietly but I am also convinced that we would not have made much progress if we had done this given the baggage on both sides if we had done this kind of blazing light of of publicity early on and we've made faster progress than I expected and so by the end of those secret talks when we made the transition back to our international partners you know we had laid the foundation for an interim deal with the Iranians which froze their nuclear program and again the Iranians did not have nuclear weapons and still don't to this day 1st their program rolled it back in some important respects him paralyzed quote intrusive monitoring and verification measures for beyond any other set of measures like that at Arms Control at the time when I return for very modest sanctions relief so we preserve the bulk of our sanctions leverage for the comprehensive talks that you know finally resulted through the you know enormous hard work of Secretary of State John Kerry and the president and others in a comprehensive agreement summer 2015 was a perfect agreement No I mean perfect is really on the menu in diplomacy it was the best of my view the best of the available alternatives to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon did it solve the wider Iranian problem of threatening actions across the Middle East efforts to whether it's in Syria to support the regime or you know to subvert other regimes in the Arab world no but I would rather argue that when a better position to push back against having limited or eliminated one area of risk namely an unconstrained Iranian nuclear program so I think it was an historic mistake for a president trying to decide to. Bill out of that agreement I think it's based on the assumption that you can somehow bring to bear unilateral American pressure strong enough that it's going to cause the still critical Iranian regime to either capitulate or to implode I just think that's a notion that's not tethered to history we can do a lot of damage to the Iranian economy but it's it is pretty good its practice of political repression at home it's pretty good muddling through and I suspect that it will be able to battle through in this sense but we're also doing over the medium term some serious collateral damage to our ocean ship with some of our closest European allies in a sense doing good emir Putin's work for him because they're trying to hang with the agreement and I think are deeply frustrated by our decision to pull out and we're also I think undercutting the utility of sanctions over the long haul because it's not just the Russians and Chinese the German foreign minister a few months ago said publicly the lesson here is that all of us need to reduce our vulnerability to the American financial system and so you know I'm not trying to suggest we've always used sanctions wisely in the past but it's been an incredibly effective tool when it's been applied in a smart fashion and what we're going to end up doing this year or next year the year after by 5 or run no longer have that tool at least in its effect of a form as we've used to do. So I'm not a big fan of. That decision to pull out of the nuclear group and we are the one last area and then I'm going to turn it over to the students and stick in the neighborhood Syria. Where do you think that you got right in wrong in Syria and is there a path out of there now that we are where we are and we've got a lot of things wrong I mean I think. You know sir in recent years some 2011 the beginning of the Arab Spring in the civil war in Syria. You know or Parsi was afflicted by an imbalance of ends and means you know we still up pretty maximalist stance you know when the president of state says a particular leader must go. The expectation is that we're going to deliver that now that may be a wildly impractical expectation but that is nonetheless kind of what you're stuck with in the United States and I think ironically we you know why we had we overreached in terms of ends in some ways we under reached in terms of means if you look at what Putin did in September of 2015 in Syria which was a relatively modest military intervention to boost to buck up the US a regime whose through a dozen combat aircraft no more than $2500.00 or so boots on the ground Russian military. It was effective because he telescoped it wasn't done incrementally and grudgingly moved in the decisive fashion as deeply as I object to Russian policy in Syria and by still dragging it out as long as we did I don't think we had the impact that we might have had if very early on you know we had been a little bit more assertive in our support of what was that a moderate opposition would that have made a difference in the outcome in Syria I can't sit here and with a straight face say that it would have because the reality was that I said was only going to get carried out of there on a board and the Russians and Iranians were always going to double down you know in defense of almost no matter what we did it might have given us a little bit more you know diplomatic leverage in that early stage when the Russians were worried that Assad was losing altitude I don't know so we're left with a situation today where there's been a true humanitarian catastrophe in Syria with hundreds of thousands of Syrians killed you know it's the reverse of the old Las Vegas rule that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas what happens in Syria doesn't stay in Syria the dissuade her and human suffering in Syria has spilled over beyond its borders up against the European Union. Which contributed at least the migration crisis to some of the political dysfunction that you see today certainly remains a very crowded and combustible landscape the danger not only that Israelis are bangin 2 Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces are Turks against Kurds in northeastern Syria and so you know as a practical matter I think we have to be realistic about our ambitions one is to try to limit the dangers of that sort of escalation and that's a challenge for diplomacy you know I mean there's an argument for keeping the you know the several 100 U.S. military forces that we have now in eastern Syria as an investment in the short term and kind of diplomacy I understand. But I think we're kidding ourselves if we think that $400.00 U.S. special operators as capable as they are are going to get the attention of the Russians and the Iranians who are variants of this stuff so there's utility if you look at over the next year and harnessing that to your diplomacy but I don't I don't think that's sustainable over the longer term. So so for. Me It's a bleak craft were the unserviceable particularly because I mean just look at the human suffering I mean I and I had a group sympathy for President Obama's concerns on that issue because he had to hang the cloud of Iraq 2003 was hanging over all this and the concern about slowing down a slippery slope into a large scale military intervention I just start at the time at least that you know when when we set a red line over Syria's use of chemical weapons and then predictably tested that red line and killed $1100.00 Syrian civilians with the use of poison gas there was one place where we didn't run the risk of a surprise so where we could have responded with a punitive military strike to make the larger. Point that you can't get away with stuff like this you know in a civilized international landscape or at least you have to pay a price for it as well we don't have solved the wider Syrian civil war no but I just think in that one instance that was probably you know the best of the available options. A lot to chew on let me turn things over to our wonderful students to our mascot Ian's questions and please proceed My name is Ashton Smith undergraduate student here concentrating in technology policy and I'm Tanya Miller on a graduate student here concentrating in international policy Nice to meet you both. So we have. Many questions here they were going to start with. A few that are kind of different from the topics are not really country specific but kind of how diplomacy operates in a sense so the 1st question is do you think that technology is hurting diplomacy and U.S. Foreign Service Service in particular or do you think the State Department work abroad window and diplomacy will be less like living abroad and more about using technology I think it's changed technology it's changing diplomacy not just American diplomacy but others around the world just like it's transforming so many other professions you know when I came into the Foreign Service the beginning of the 1980 S. we still used to rate things called Air grams which were these long you know like got someone called a diplomatic courier to pick up put in his diplomatic pouch and fly to Washington to give it to somebody now you know so this was in the pre i Phone you know pre e-mail age as well the transformation in the Information Technology has been enormous I however have enough of a traditionalist to think that at that actually makes smart diplomatic reporting from embassies overseas just like smart journalism more rather than less important because you've got this avalanche of information and you need somebody to distill it and say here's what you really need to pay attention to here's where this may lead Here's what history tells us and our experience tells us about world this is drifting to so you know I think it doesn't erode the significance of diplomacy but it certainly changes the way you conducted and the other big changes when I came into the foreign service 35 years ago you know dependency was about government to government relations increasingly that's a large part of that but it's also about relations between societies and how you engage people in other societies outside foreign ministries in the halls of government and then. You don't have to be you know just as versatile and just as capable of getting outside government buildings or embassy. And you know in dealing with people across other societies if you want to understand you know what animates what makes them tick and that's tough to do in an age where the physical risks are if anything increasing but you're never going to go anyplace and deploy in American diplomacy overseas if you take a 0 risk approach you just you just can't if you want to understand another society. Continue along the same path much of that much of diplomatic work you describe is about persistence dominance don't mess with me attitudes how does gender play a role in perceived abilities or success of diplomacy what differences exist for the genders in the in the career. Another really good question I mean as I mentioned earlier I think the State Department as an institution the American Foreign Service has made painfully slow progress over the course of the last 3 decades or so and looking more like the society we represent I came into the Foreign Service 9 out of One out of 4 were female. By the time I left the gender balance was close to 5050 across all ranks but it was much worse than that at senior ranks and in terms of ethnic diversity we were beginning to make some progress but still as I said way too slow one of my concerns about the last couple of years is those trend lines have been reversed. And so you'd not only see a lot of vacancies but you also see the progress made over those years. I think really being hollowed out and it in the you know the truth is that it always takes a lot longer to fix something that it does to break it and so the damage that we're doing to ourselves is going to last for a while the want to Lety embodying the society that you represent overseas is simple enough we always get a lot farther overseas through the power of our example than we do through the power of our preaching and it's hard to get an audience for political openness if we don't walk the walk if we don't look like we're embodying those principles of diversity however imperfect our own society is and that's one of the appeals that are best for the United States overseas that's why there are still long lines of people who want to get visas to this country or come here but we're right now in the Foreign Service and more broadly and I think that that there is real damage over the long term. So the next question is more specific to our current administration it appears that Secretary of State POMPEI O has altered policy decisions made by President drum in multiple areas so our military support goes to Syria Afghanistan have previous secretary of states in previous administrations also alter policy in some way or decorations made by the president yet don't know how many policies have been altered I mean I think you know especially in the current lineup of senior officials people are pretty attuned to you know President Trump's decisions and what he wants to do you know I think in most effective administrations that I've seen there was a fair amount of discipline I mean you think back again to the error that I was describing before of President George H.W. Bush and Secretary of State James Baker I mean you know they were through most of their adult lives best friends personally and so you know there are occasionally disagreed on issues there were occasional The disconnects between Certainly there were disagreements amongst President Bush $41.00 senior advisers but there was a fair amount of discipline there and. You know it was it was a group of people that you know once the decision was made were quite effective in following through on it as well. You know for the criticism that the Obama administration sometimes gets in foreign policy you know it was a pretty collegial group of people and pretty disciplined group I don't remember any big disconnects in that sense part of the reason I think you see disconnects now is it's not only the erratic nature of some of the decisions that get made at the top but it's also the fact as I said before is there's not really any process and so you know you get a tweet which will set one direction. But because people aren't you know on the takeoff of a decision being sometimes the landing is really messy as well. Yeah you say that with the decision of the president. Apparently right after a telephone conversation. Of Turkey. With drawing U.S. troops from Syria and clearly he talked to a Defense James Madison at the time which was one of the reasons that matters subsequently resigned so I you know I've seen a lot of dysfunction in Washington probably contributed to it. But never seen anything quite like this. So you've already touched a little bit about Russia but there are a couple questions here so combine them what is the one most important thing the U.S. can do to recentre relations with Russia and how would you characterize the differences between Russian and American visions of utopia. Whether 1st when it's a little more straightforward you know I think. As profound as the differences are between the United States and Russia today and as I suggested don't think there's any near term prospect of some great transformation and those he was important to employ to try to develop guardrails and the relationship even in the worst of the Cold War with the Soviets as Mel knows very well you know we managed to engage the Soviets the Russians then pretty serious arms control discussions we are still today the world's 2 nuclear superpowers we are running the risk today that what's left of the old arms control architecture The grew out of the late Cold War period is falling apart. The agreement the I.N.F. agreement on intermediate nuclear range forces which is now 20 years old is about to fall apart in large part because of Russian violations but the bigger danger is that the new START agreement which was concluded in the Obama administration and which reduces and regulates the strategic nuclear weapons between our 2 countries. Is set to expire at the beginning at $2021.00 now unless we get our act in gear in an effort to try to extend you know that agreement will essentially be left with no architecture in managing our relationship that not only increases the risk. Given the fact that we're the world's 2 nuclear superpowers it's a pretty lousy example for the rest of the world as we try to push against the proliferation of nuclear weapons as well so that's the one thing one of the things I think in the near term I hope will focus on in this administration because you know for a new administer if a new administration comes in who knows what'll happen in the elections in 2020. That would be a pretty. Shaky and heritance you know to have that arms control architecture to have collapse versions of utopia. You know I think in my experience. You know most Russians and most Americans our histories are much different but you know the sense of individual Russians especially of the younger generation is not all that dissimilar from what Americans of the same generation want you know you want life to be better for your kids than it was for you you want to sense of opportunity course Russians are proud of their history you know you think Americans have a streak of exceptionalism Russians have a quite pronounced streak of their own exceptionalism. And you have the individual Russian leaders and India logs who have their own view of utopia just as you do in this country as well but I don't I don't think there are any you know unbridgeable gap so in terms of the basic views that individual citizens have. As future diplomats or people with international or clearance and international politics are sitting in this room or watching the stream What advice do you have for them as they navigate international diplomacy by giving our current political climate and what our tools are characteristics that are vital to achieve successful diplomacy Well I hope that anybody in this room students or otherwise you know who are considering a career in public service whether it's foreign service or something else will pursue it I am an optimist over the medium term about what's possible for our society we've talked a lot about what's broken but I don't think it's impossible to address you know a lot of those challenges over time. You know when I was taken the finds I guess read before I took the Foreign Service exam I think I might have mentioned this before but my dad who was a career Army officer he spent 35 years in the Army had written me a letter and said you know as I was sort of contemplating what to do with myself after graduate school and said nothing can make you proud or them to serve your country with honor and it didn't really register with me at the time to be honest but I spent the next 3 and a half decades discovering the wisdom of that advice and I'm entirely confident that there are people in this room who will discover the wisdom of that as well this is going to be a really complicated moment for us as Americans in our own society but for us on the international landscape too because as I said it's a much more competitive crowded contested environment out there among states and beyond States Climate Change the revolution in technology it's going to be tricky terrain to navigate but you need people such as those who are serving in the Foreign Service today who are hardworking committed patriotic you know who do their level best to advance American interests on that complicated landscape as well. So one of the things that I think is most unfortunate about the debate that you see today is the kind of distain for public service the belittling of public service of its professional practitioners I am the last person to suggest that just because you're a professional practitioner means you have monopoly on wisdom we have lots of things wrong too but it's a noble profession and a lot of ways and I think you know the sooner we realize and invest in it the better off we're going to be as a country and that very complicated international landscape. So Target back to my country specific question how do you see your relations with Saudi Arabia propping pullets another company little relationship to my ruin all your digestions for dinner I'm sorry. No no no. The same would be matters to the United States I mean it's a big country it's sitting on a lot of energy resources it's in a part of the world that well and some ways matter less to the United States than it did 2030 years ago at the beginning of my career but still matters so I don't mean to suggest we can neglect their relationship healthy relationships in my experience have to be 2 way streets. Which means that you know it seems to me our message to the Saudi leadership embodied in the crown prince Mama been some on our to believe that yeah in the face of extra No threats whether it's the Iranians or others you know we'll help have your back that were before we're supportive of serious efforts to reform and social and economic modernization of Saudi Arabia but we're going to be honest about instances of overreach whether it's internal or external externally in Yemen you know a humanitarian catastrophe today tens of thousands of Yemeni civilians being killed and also I would argue a strategic catastrophe too because it's not like the Iranians who's sort of main adversary of the Saudis and their coalition in Yemen invented the Hooty rebellion there and I'm going to betting it they didn't invent it and it's costing them very little and costing the Saudis billions of dollars a year and that's a conflict the needs to be stopped and we have to be direct about that as the U.S. Congress is trying to be right now and over return turn away as well you know the the crew were episodes of domestic repression arrest attention of young women who have just been protesting peacefully and especially the horrible murder of Jamal Khashoggi you know a journalist who you know interviewed me anonyma were the years the least radical critic of his own regime that high new and Yuri. Murdered in a horrible fashion in a Saudi diplomatic facility in Turkey and we ought to be very direct about that that's not a threat to the health director in that instance is not a threat to health the U.S. Saudi relationship it's an investment in a healthy U.S. Saudi relationship because that kind of overreach is going to create over time a more and more brittle society are we going to affect the way in which the crown prince operates and who's in the leadership and Saudi Arabia that's not our business and what we can do is use this moment to push very hard on Yemen and the release of you know of dissidents who have been you know protesting peacefully in Saudi Arabia and I don't see any reason why I think it's wrong for us simply to indulge their leadership over these things it's not only wrong morally to make any sense practically in my view either. So the last question are so you've talked about that's what policy areas are a right climate policy technology and policy towards multiple countries and what policy arena do you see American diplomacy most critically looking most critically most critical or most critically looking in the future. We have talked about climate where I think we're you know we're missing a lot of opportunities right now to help mobilize countries around the world I think was a big mistake for us to pull out of the Paris climate agreement I've talked about I think the absence thus far of a serious American effort to work with other countries to establish some basic rules of the road you know on some of the biggest challenges that the revolution in technology poses I think we're tending to treat with neglect him and other ways benignly collect some parts of the world that matter enormously look at Africa today you know Africa's population is going to double by the middle of this century to 2000000000 people not know enormous possibilities I think and you saw it in some individual African countries which you know have has made considerable progress in recent years but it's also a continent with huge challenges unresolved regional conflicts in many societies poor governance corruption you know food water health insecurities and you know the United States a member in the George W. Bush administration the pope for a program that was launched to fight a HIV AIDS I think one of the best things United States has done since the Marshall Plan at the end of the Circa World War we were working with engaged leaderships in a number of African societies have helped make a real difference you know brought the world not just Africa to the edge of an AIDS free generation we're in the process if you look at the budget that you know was proposed by the White House last Monday cutting significantly a lot of the. As assistant programs at precisely the moment when we might you know finally cement historic progress and it just reflects I think a burger dismissiveness of the significance of that part of the world and I just think that's a mistake so that's you know one area mentioned well this is been just a delightful conversation and I've learned a ton and loved reading the book and those of you now have the book should enjoy it it's just a gorgeous read. We're going to have a reception outside we'll have a book signing opportunity with Ambassador Burns and I want to thank again Hank Meyer for his work in sponsoring in making possible this Vandenberg lecture. And Brian wiser for his work setting up the wiser diplomacy center here my colleagues Mel and John and Susan for their participation in this event our special guest Jill Dougherty So please join me in all of us together thanking embassador.